"Метінвесту" Ахметова і Новинського присвоїли новий корпоративний рейтинг

12.01.2018 23:55 | Банк: ПУМБ


Международное рейтинговое агентство S&P Global Ratings присвоило нидерландскому холдингу Metinvest B.V. бизнесмена Рината Ахметова долгосрочный корпоративный кредитный рейтинг B- со стабильным прогнозом. Об этом сообщает пресс-служба агентства.

В S&P отметили, что компания полностью покрывает потребности в железной руде и коксе за счет собственных предприятий. Вертикальная интеграция Metinvest B.V. позволяет компании гибко изменять ассортимент продукции и перенаправлять объемы для внутреннего использования или экспорта в зависимости от рыночных цен, передает ЛигаБизнесИнформ.

Высокая концентрация активов в Украине, по мнению S&P, повышает бизнес-риски холдинга.

"Этот риск материализовался в результате потери нескольких своих производственных активов в Восточной Украине в прошлом году и значительных дебиторских задолженностей в 2016 г.", - заявили в агентстве.

Прогноз "Стабильный" отражает ожидание S&P того, что Metinvest B.V. сможет улучшить и поддерживать более высокую рентабельность.

S&P ожидает, что Metinvest B.V. повысит рентабельность деятельности по итогам 2017 г., при этом скорректированная маржа EBITDA группы составит 15-20% на фоне благоприятной ценовой конъюнктуры на сталь, железную руду и коксующийся уголь.

Агентство также ожидает улучшения в 2017 г. соотношения скорректированного операционного денежного потока группы к долгу до 35% с 20% в 2016 г., а также снижения соотношения скорректированного долга к EBITDA до 2 с 3,4 в 2016 г. и около 10 в 2015 году. В 2018 г. S&P ожидает улучшение соотношения скорректированного денежного потока холдинга к долгу до 35-40%.

Ранее сообщалось, что суд Нидерландов временно заморозил активы компаний бизнес группы СКМ Рината Ахметова, на территории Нидерландов.

Оригінал релізу:

Ukraine-Based Vertically Integrated Steel Producer Metinvest Rated 'B-'; Outlook Stable


  • Our assessment of Metinvest's creditworthiness reflects the very high risk of operating in Ukraine, as well as the group's high earnings volatility and its increasing capital-expenditure requirements.
  • However, we acknowledge that these risks are partly mitigated by improving steel margins, export focus, some asset and geographic diversity, and vertical integration, as well as good visibility on the group's financial policy, capital structure, and liquidity following the recent debt restructuring.
  • We are assigning our 'B-' long-term corporate credit rating to Metinvest.
  • The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Metinvest will be able to improve and sustain higher margins from 2017 from a low base in 2015.
LONDON (S&P Global Ratings) Jan. 12, 2018--S&P Global Ratings today assigned 
its 'B-' long-term corporate credit rating to Metinvest B.V., the holding 
company of a group of mostly Ukraine-based vertically integrated steel and 
mining assets. The outlook is stable.

Metinvest, with operations in Ukraine and abroad, is a midsize producer with 
steel capacity of 8.3 million tons (Mt). This compares with rated peers in 
Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, such as Severstal (11.6Mt), Evraz 
(13.5Mt), and SSAB (8Mt). Metinvest had revenues of $6.2 billion and S&P 
Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA of $874 million (excluding contributions from 
joint ventures) in 2016. The company's iron ore production was about 30Mt in 
2016, and a substantial part of group earnings derived from third-party sales 
of iron ore.

Established in 2006, Metinvest is a private company, majority owned (71.2% as 
of June 30, 2017) by System Capital Management (SCM), a large Ukrainian 
financial and industrial group that had consolidated 2016 revenues of $11.4 
billion. SCM's credit standing does not currently constrain the ratings on 
Metinvest, in our view. We note that a shareholder agreement requires 
unanimous decisions by shareholders and a Eurobond and pre-export finance 
(PXF) documentation limits dividends. We note the ongoing legal proceedings 
between SCM Group and Raga Establishment Ltd. Metinvest does not expect any 
impact on its business from these proceedings. The current rating on Metinvest 
assumes that SCM Group will maintain its current shareholding in the company.

Our assessment of Metinvest's business risk profile as vulnerable takes into 
account the very high risk of operating in Ukraine and high earnings 
volatility over the past two to three years, hampered by the loss of assets 
and receivable impairments in Ukraine. We also consider the volatile global 
steel markets, the company's focus on commodity steel grades, and its 
relatively high-cost mining assets. These risks are partly mitigated by 
improving steel margins and access to European markets by way of rolling mills 
based inside the EU.

The company's vertical integration gives it the flexibility to alter its 
product mix and redirect volumes for internal use or export depending on 
market prices. The company is self-sufficient in iron ore (267% during the 
first nine months of 2017) and coke (116%), and, to a lesser degree, in coking 
coal (about 30%) from its U.S.-based subsidiary United Coal. Metinvest's 
rolling mills in Italy, the U.K., and Bulgaria somewhat enhance its 
competitive advantage over other exporters, as these are not subject to EU 
import duties. That said, the company has a high concentration of assets in 
Ukraine, which weighs on its business risk profile, in our view. This risk 
materialized in the loss of several of its production assets in Eastern 
Ukraine last year and significant receivable impairments in 2016 (related to 
receivables that had been due for over five years).

Of the revenues generated in the first nine months of 2017, 74% came from 
international sales, mostly in Europe, where market conditions improved and 
steel prices were supportive over the period. This compares with the Ukrainian 
steel market, which has seen crude steel production decrease since 2013, due 
to unfavorable market conditions and lower domestic demand, amid the economic 
crisis and conflict in the Eastern Ukraine. We expect Metinvest will report 
stronger profitability in 2017, with an S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA 
margin of 15%-20% (assessment includes the distribution of third-party 
production, which slightly depresses margins) on more supportive steel, iron 
ore, and coking coal prices. However, the company's historically volatile 
profitability in the steel segment particularly following the depressed iron 
ore and steel environment in 2014-2016, constrains our assessment. We see 
Metinvest's mining cash cost in the fourth quartile (CFR China basis) as 
higher than levels at rated peers like Ferrexpo PLC and Metalloinvest.

Our assessment of Metinvest's financial risk profile balances the company's 
current and expected funds from operations (FFO) to debt above 30% with the 
company's typically volatile earnings, the high levels of catch-up capital 
expenditures (capex) we expect in the next few years, and lower price 
assumptions for iron ore in 2018 and 2019. The cash sweep mechanism and the 
dividend restrictions under the Eurobond and PXF documentation provide comfort 
and visibility on financial policy in terms of expectations of deleveraging 
and lack of dividend payments.

We expect 2017 to be a good year for Metinvest, buoyed by higher prices, which 
will likely allow the company to achieve S&P Global Ratings-adjusted FFO to 
debt of about 35%, compared with below 20% in 2016, and adjusted debt to 
EBITDA of around 2.0x, compared with 3.4x at end-2016 and around 10.0x at 
end-2015. Under our forecast of somewhat lower iron ore prices and debt, but 
higher pellet premiums and capex, we expect FFO to debt in the 35%-40% range 
in 2018.

In March 2017, the company completed its debt restructuring of its Eurobonds 
and PXF facilities. Post restructuring, the capital structure consists of $1.2 
billion Eurobonds, $1.1 billion PXF facilities, trade finance, other debt 
(leasing and export credit agency financing), and $0.4 billion shareholder 
loans (SHL)--excluded from S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt. The restructuring 
agreement resulted in an improved capital structure, with maturities extended 
to 2021, and has strengthened the company's liquidity position. The new loan 
has a two-year quasi-grace period, during which only 30% of interest payments 
and no principal repayments are made, unless the cash balance exceeds $180 
million. In addition, the loan documentation restricts Metinvest from paying 
dividends unless certain conditions are met, including consolidated net 
leverage below 1.5x (defined as per loan documentation) and at least 55% of 
bonds and PFX amounts outstanding as of the restructuring that must have been 

As of June 30, 2017, S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt for Metinvest was $2.95 
billion. We also include in our measure of adjusted debt $276 million of 
defined benefit pension obligations, $115 million of trade receivables sold, 
$54 million of asset retirement obligations, trade finance, and other debt 
(leasing and export credit agency financing). We exclude the shareholder loan 
of $443 million in our adjusted debt calculation, since this is subordinated, 
has no ongoing debt service requirements, and matures after other debt 

The stable outlook reflects our base-case expectation that Metinvest will be 
able to improve and sustain higher margins in 2017 and thereafter, from a low 
base in 2015. We expect high planned capex to constrain free operating cash 
flow generation over the same period, however. We also assume that Metinvest 
will maintain adequate liquidity. Furthermore, we take into account that 
Metinvest's majority shareholder SCM will pose no constraint on Metinvest and 
that there will be no further geopolitical risk escalation in Ukraine. The 
rating on Metinvest is currently not constrained by our view of the 
sovereign's creditworthiness.

We expect that the company will maintain adjusted FFO to debt of over 20% 
under normal market conditions and could withstand a weakening to 12% under a 
lower commodity price scenario.

We could lower our rating on Metinvest if its steel margins fail to stabilize 
in 2018, as we expect in our base case, because this would lead to higher 
leverage than we currently forecast. A deterioration in the company's 
liquidity could also lead us to review the rating. Moreover, a weakening of 
the credit profile of the SCM group could squeeze the current 'B-' rating.

Given the debt restructuring and changes in the business in 2017, a potential 
upgrade would hinge on the company demonstrating, over the next 12-18 months, 
operating performance in line with our base case. The credit quality of the 
controlling shareholders and maintenance of sufficiently robust liquidity to 
withstand a sovereign default are also factors we would consider before taking 
a positive rating action.

Bankografo note:

Метінвест і ПУМБ є пов'язаними компаніями, оскільки мають спільного бенефіціара Ахметова Р.Л.